Vietnam vs. Chinese Taipei: Chinese Taipei O/U 0.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 55¢ · $442 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$442.16
$68.4
47.9¢ → 55¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 48.6¢ | $292.83 | $349.17 | +$56.34 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 44.2¢ | $71.89 | $82.29 | +$10.4 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $4.14 | $4.9 | +$0.76 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.9 | +$0.4 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.9 | +$0.5 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
Invested
$292.83
Value
$349.17
PnL
+$56.34
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$71.89
Value
$82.29
PnL
+$10.4
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.76
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.4
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.5
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.