Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Vietnam vs. Chinese Taipei: O/U 3.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 47¢ · $137 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$136.7
$8.95
43.7¢ → 46.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.6¢ | $73.49 | $76.58 | +$3.09 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $27.16 | $31.91 | +$4.75 | 37% 191-330 (521) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $14.55 | $14.55 | +$0 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $7.54 | $8.06 | +$0.51 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $5 | $5.59 | +$0.6 | 41% 3023-4424 (7447) |
Invested
$73.49
Value
$76.58
PnL
+$3.09
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$27.16
Value
$31.91
PnL
+$4.75
Record
37%
191-330 (521)
Invested
$14.55
Value
$14.55
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$7.54
Value
$8.06
PnL
+$0.51
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.59
PnL
+$0.6
Record
41%
3023-4424 (7447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.