Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Paris FC win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 45¢ · $857 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$857.31
-$2.75
46.8¢ → 45.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Noavg 46.8¢ | $618.25 | $601.41 | -$0.45 | 53% 2579-2259 (4838) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 55¢ | $256.59 | $254.26 | -$2.33 | 53% 16808-14936 (31744) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $0.82 | $0.83 | +$0.01 | 69% 7208-3190 (10398) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $0.79 | $0.81 | +$0.03 | 58% 46700-33657 (80357) |
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$618.25
Value
$601.41
PnL
-$0.45
Record
53%
2579-2259 (4838)
Invested
$256.59
Value
$254.26
PnL
-$2.33
Record
53%
16808-14936 (31744)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.83
PnL
+$0.01
Record
69%
7208-3190 (10398)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0.03
Record
58%
46700-33657 (80357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.