Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Angers SCO vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 19¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$1.5K
-$299.06
25.3¢ → 18.5¢
-27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Noavg 75¢ | $546 | $593.32 | +$47.32 | 45% 14412-17706 (32118) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $2.4K | $443.69 | -$174.71 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $1.1K | $192.25 | -$83.63 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $1.0K | $180.34 | -$86.01 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $287.94 | $50.39 | -$1.44 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $15.57 | $14.9 | -$0.67 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $5.56 | $4.59 | +$0.03 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4.42 | $4.56 | +$0.14 | 46% 12026-13917 (25943) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.87 | $2.79 | -$0.08 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
nigiri99Invested
$546
Value
$593.32
PnL
+$47.32
Record
45%
14412-17706 (32118)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,406.02
Value
$443.69
PnL
-$174.71
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$1,068.07
Value
$192.25
PnL
-$83.63
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Invested
$1,030.54
Value
$180.34
PnL
-$86.01
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
Invested
$287.94
Value
$50.39
PnL
-$1.44
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
Invested
$15.57
Value
$14.9
PnL
-$0.67
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.56
Value
$4.59
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
dips.<$100Invested
$4.42
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$0.14
Record
46%
12026-13917 (25943)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.