Will FC Lorient win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$10.7

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 60.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$970.32

Total Shares1,562

Combined PnL-$1.43

Yes5 traders

Total Value$299.61

Total Shares749

Combined PnL+$12.13

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 64.2¢	$516.53	$511.18	-$5.36	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Noavg 60¢	$446.11	$449.83	+$3.72	53% 232-209 (441)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$115.1	$116.57	+$1.48	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$251.58	$102.92	+$10.08	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$69.65	$70.54	+$0.89	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 62¢	$9.1	$9.32	+$0.21	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$5.37	$5.36	-$0.01	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$4.53	$4.22	-$0.31	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$516.53

Value

$511.18

PnL

-$5.36

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Invested

$446.11

Value

$449.83

PnL

+$3.72

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.1

Value

$116.57

PnL

+$1.48

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$251.58

Value

$102.92

PnL

+$10.08

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.65

Value

$70.54

PnL

+$0.89

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.32

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.37

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.53

Value

$4.22

PnL

-$0.31

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.