FC Lorient vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 6.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$8.2K
-$2.98
99.2¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 99.2¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$18.06 | 54% 58149-50375 (108524) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 99.2¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | -$10.02 | 50% 25008-24730 (49738) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 99.2¢ | $494.84 | $493.04 | -$1.81 | 53% 6373-5762 (12135) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Overavg 0.8¢ | $45.3 | $66.3 | +$21 | 46% 9227-10938 (20165) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 0.8¢ | $12.25 | $18.16 | +$5.91 | 58% 48519-34669 (83188) |
RN1Invested
$4,780.22
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$18.06
Record
54%
58149-50375 (108524)
Invested
$2,835.35
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$10.02
Record
50%
25008-24730 (49738)
HRTradingInvested
$494.84
Value
$493.04
PnL
-$1.81
Record
53%
6373-5762 (12135)
Invested
$45.3
Value
$66.3
PnL
+$21
Record
46%
9227-10938 (20165)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$18.16
PnL
+$5.91
Record
58%
48519-34669 (83188)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.