Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Olympique Lyonnais, while the market favors Angers SCO (57%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Olympique Lyonnais (20%) · Olympique Lyonnais at 43¢ · $828 held · ends Nov 1

Olympique Lyonnais43¢Angers SCO57¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Olympique Lyonnais

Consensus Traders

Olympique Lyonnais 20%

Total Value

$828.1

Combined PnL

-$36.08

Research grade

NeutralOlympique Lyonnais at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olympique Lyonnais

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Angers SCO 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Olympique Lyonnais43%

Angers SCO57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Olympique Lyonnais1 trader

Total Value$709.42

Total Shares1,669

Combined PnL-$39.24

Angers SCO4 traders

Total Value$118.68

Total Shares210

Combined PnL+$3.16

Olympique Lyonnais — 20%Angers SCO — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 44.9¢	$748.66	$709.42	-$39.24	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Angers SCOavg 56¢	$42	$42	+$0	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
LZ lzh1<$100	Angers SCOavg 55.4¢	$33.77	$35.07	+$1.3	43% 471-634 (1105)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Angers SCOavg 54¢	$32.5	$34.01	+$1.52	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
CA Cannae<$100	Angers SCOavg 54¢	$7.32	$7.59	+$0.34	53% 16119-14285 (30404)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$748.66

Value

$709.42

PnL

-$39.24

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Angers SCO

Invested

$42

Value

$42

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

lzh1<$100

Angers SCO

Invested

$33.77

Value

$35.07

PnL

+$1.3

Record

43%

471-634 (1105)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Angers SCO

Invested

$32.5

Value

$34.01

PnL

+$1.52

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Cannae<$100

Angers SCO

Invested

$7.32

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Research grade

NeutralOlympique Lyonnais at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Olympique Lyonnais

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Angers SCO 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olympique Lyonnais wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.