Consensus PnL -$112K · win rate 42% (464–633, n=1097) · was PM monthly #838 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-111.8K
Record
464W / 633L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 1097 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2062
Source
PM monthly #838
Trades
130
Markets
1,141
Volume
$2.7M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 8 on the consensus side (75%)- Will US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?No $12K · now 68¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio $3.5K · now 90¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (57% of 24)
- Will Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?No $1.5K · now 74¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Empoli FC vs. SS Juve Stabia end in a draw?No $886 · now 53¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (43% of 8)
- Will Molde FK win on 2026-11-01?No $125 · now 98¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (77% of 15)
- Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-01?Yes $85 · now 68¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (53% of 18)
- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-11-01?No $69 · now 37¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Angers SCO $28 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Olympique Lyonnais)
Specialties
510 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 48¢- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 91% of 274 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +40%
- Esports
+41 pts
side won 84% of 191 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +41%
- Other Sports
+42 pts
side won 94% of 17 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 59% of 41)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 89% of 220)
- 50–70¢: 47%(won 93% of 238)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 91% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.