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D2
Consensus PnL $95K · win rate 51% (252–247, n=499) · PM monthly #240 · holds 10 consensus positions
0xd29312e2...c6d7d683Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$95.3K
Record
252W / 247L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 499 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1698
Source
PM monthly #240
Trades
109
Markets
519
Volume
$3.4M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 10 on the consensus side (30%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $44K · now 54¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-01?No $19K · now 51¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes $18K · now 31¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Under $14K · now 87¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-11-01?No $6.0K · now 71¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $4.6K · now 46¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $4.0K · now 63¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (61% of 48)
- FC Nordsjælland vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5Over $721 · now 54¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
216 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 55¢- Soccer
+45 pts
side won 100% of 216 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +45%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 100% of 80)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 100% of 84)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 43)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.