Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$6.3K
-$766.8
75.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 71.6¢ | $3.9K | $3.1K | -$748.46 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 82¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$108.81 | 72% 2540-972 (3512) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 69.1¢ | $652.47 | $739.38 | +$86.91 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $12.04 | $13.5 | +$1.46 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $8.51 | $10.61 | +$2.09 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
Invested
$3,857.95
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$748.46
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$2,549.17
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$108.81
Record
72%
2540-972 (3512)
RN1CTRInvested
$652.47
Value
$739.38
PnL
+$86.91
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.04
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$1.46
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.51
Value
$10.61
PnL
+$2.09
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.