Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-08?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.6K
$8.98
57.3¢ → 57.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 57¢ | $609.53 | $646.51 | +$10.73 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 56.6¢ | $379.97 | $386.18 | +$6.21 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 59.2¢ | $358.81 | $348.47 | -$10.34 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 56¢ | $166.11 | $170.44 | +$4.33 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $32.01 | $29.92 | -$1.76 | 53% 17085-15197 (32282) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $20.25 | $20.21 | -$0.04 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $17.92 | $17.77 | -$0.15 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
Invested
$609.53
Value
$646.51
PnL
+$10.73
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$379.97
Value
$386.18
PnL
+$6.21
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$358.81
Value
$348.47
PnL
-$10.34
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$166.11
Value
$170.44
PnL
+$4.33
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$32.01
Value
$29.92
PnL
-$1.76
Record
53%
17085-15197 (32282)
Invested
$20.25
Value
$20.21
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$17.92
Value
$17.77
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.