Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 64¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8

Over37¢Under63¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$56.3

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 63.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares10,264

Combined PnL+$159.73

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares9,712

Combined PnL-$103.43

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 61¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$176.25	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 39.3¢	$5.4K	$2.0K	-$145.86	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$49.12	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 34¢	$2.8K	$1.0K	+$71.1	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
nigiri99	Underavg 58¢	$429.2	$469.9	+$40.7	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 39.4¢	$1.2K	$464.74	-$33.07	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 65¢	$543.42	$345.07	-$8.15	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 34.9¢	$126.79	$132.44	+$5.64	49% 507-531 (1038)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 39¢	$220	$18.25	-$1.25	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 63¢	$6.81	$6.86	+$0.05	57% 22329-16593 (38922)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$4,269.89

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$176.25

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$5,399.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$145.86

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,313.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$49.12

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,843.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$71.1

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$429.2

Value

$469.9

PnL

+$40.7

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,192.14

Value

$464.74

PnL

-$33.07

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$543.42

Value

$345.07

PnL

-$8.15

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$126.79

Value

$132.44

PnL

+$5.64

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$220

Value

$18.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.