Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-11-08?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$1.5K
-$73.24
58.9¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 60.2¢ | $660.81 | $592.66 | -$68.15 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 58¢ | $228.8 | $234.72 | +$5.92 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $400 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 59¢ | $166.5 | $167.91 | +$1.41 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 60.2¢ | $106.66 | $95.66 | -$11 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $93.53 | $91.83 | -$1.7 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $26 | $27 | +$1 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $22.87 | $21.58 | -$1.29 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 53.3¢ | $14.93 | $15.12 | +$0.19 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $10.33 | $10.6 | +$0.27 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $9.59 | $9.71 | +$0.12 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$660.81
Value
$592.66
PnL
-$68.15
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$228.8
Value
$234.72
PnL
+$5.92
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$400
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$166.5
Value
$167.91
PnL
+$1.41
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$106.66
Value
$95.66
PnL
-$11
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$93.53
Value
$91.83
PnL
-$1.7
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$26
Value
$27
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$22.87
Value
$21.58
PnL
-$1.29
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.93
Value
$15.12
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$10.33
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$0.27
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$9.71
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.