Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 25%
$2.6K
$73.02
66.2¢ → 70.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 66.2¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$119.26 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 34¢ | $340 | $295 | -$45 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $400 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 35.1¢ | $57.89 | $62.64 | +$4.74 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $58.14 | $50.45 | -$7.7 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 67.5¢ | $20.92 | $22.17 | +$1.24 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $16.06 | $17.95 | +$1.89 | 56% 8260-6557 (14817) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 33.8¢ | $11.16 | $9.74 | -$1.43 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$1,837.63
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$119.26
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$340
Value
$295
PnL
-$45
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$400
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$57.89
Value
$62.64
PnL
+$4.74
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$58.14
Value
$50.45
PnL
-$7.7
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$20.92
Value
$22.17
PnL
+$1.24
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$16.06
Value
$17.95
PnL
+$1.89
Record
56%
8260-6557 (14817)
Invested
$11.16
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$1.43
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.