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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.1K
$562.07
77.3¢ → 94.5¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
257h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 69.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$452.72 | 74% 2792-1005 (3797) |
 theta-thunberg | Noavg 85¢ | $894.73 | $999.99 | +$89.47 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $386.86 | $409.87 | +$18.69 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $47.5 | +$4.5 | 56% 1213-967 (2180) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $5.61 | $2.3 | -$3.32 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
viniiInvested
$1,219.69
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$452.72
Record
74%
2792-1005 (3797)
theta-thunbergInvested
$894.73
Value
$999.99
PnL
+$89.47
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
Invested
$386.86
Value
$409.87
PnL
+$18.69
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$42.5
Value
$47.5
PnL
+$4.5
Record
56%
1213-967 (2180)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$3.32
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.