Consensus PnL $107K · win rate 76% (595–192, n=787) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 48 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$107.1K
Record
595W / 192L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 787 settled
Batting Avg
78.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#542
Source
PM monthly #1000 + pinned
Trades
29,946
Markets
1,472
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
48 in listed consensus markets · 39 of 48 on the consensus side (81%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $19K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $11K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $10K · now 89¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No $7.1K · now 100¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (59% of 22)
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Yes $5.8K · now 35¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (No)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?No $3.9K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (57% of 21)
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 64¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (65% of 17)
- New pandemic in 2026?No $1.8K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
Specialties
1,074 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 70¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 85% of 274 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +5%
- Finance
+4 pts
side won 97% of 137 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+13 pts
side won 94% of 33 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 50% of 12 at an average 56¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −14%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 15% of 149)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 47% of 122)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 75% of 138)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 95% of 665)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.