Consensus PnL $53K · win rate 51% (225–212, n=437) · hand-picked wallet · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$53.4K
Record
225W / 212L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 437 settled
Batting Avg
60.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1699
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,633
Markets
877
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 11 on the consensus side (73%)- US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Yes $3.3K · now 63¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?No $1.0K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Yes $875 · now 38¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?No $648 · now 76¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
- US imports Russian diesel by November 15?No $462 · now 61¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?Yes $335 · now 24¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (57% of 8)
- Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?No $101 · now 42¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No $93 · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
Specialties
611 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 47¢- Politics
+10 pts
side won 60% of 53 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 45% of 185 · avg entry 43¢
ROI 0%
- Tech
+8 pts
side won 45% of 55 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: Culture — held side won 18% of 11 at an average 41¢ entry (−23 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 42%(won 10% of 257)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 35% of 62)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 74% of 73)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 95% of 219)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.