Consensus PnL $10K · win rate 58% (979–715, n=1694) · hand-picked wallet · holds 33 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$10.2K
Record
979W / 715L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 1694 settled
Batting Avg
47.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1279
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
9,658
Markets
2,332
Volume
$792.1K
Top consensus positions
33 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 33 on the consensus side (45%)- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $963 · now 75¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (65% of 24)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $636 · now 53¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $426 · now 71¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes $342 · now 27¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $286 · now 26¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $264 · now 66¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $241 · now 99¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (68% of 68)
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?No $164 · now 37¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,192 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 54¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 63% of 124 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +4%
- Tech
+5 pts
side won 63% of 70 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +5%
- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 55% of 38 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 54% of 458 at an average 56¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 11% of 383)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 37% of 166)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 57% of 156)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 92% of 487)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.