Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $489 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$489.09
$61.61
68.9¢ → 69¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $132.78 | $172.19 | +$39.42 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 68.7¢ | $160.12 | $163.1 | -$14.49 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $78.23 | $112.84 | +$34.62 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $37.68 | $39.83 | +$2.15 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $1.2 | $1.13 | -$0.08 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
Invested
$132.78
Value
$172.19
PnL
+$39.42
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$160.12
Value
$163.1
PnL
-$14.49
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$78.23
Value
$112.84
PnL
+$34.62
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$37.68
Value
$39.83
PnL
+$2.15
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$0.08
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.