Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 56¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$429.39
29.3¢ → 56¢
+91% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $156.37 | $697.46 | +$365.52 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 51.6¢ | $194.52 | $204.9 | +$10.39 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 47.5¢ | $53.49 | $139.08 | +$54.39 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $114.62 | $99.37 | +$26.02 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $25.37 | $56.14 | +$49.54 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.1¢ | $66.68 | $43.22 | -$23.52 | |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $42.53 | $48.86 | -$0.9 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
Invested
$156.37
Value
$697.46
PnL
+$365.52
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$194.52
Value
$204.9
PnL
+$10.39
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$53.49
Value
$139.08
PnL
+$54.39
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$114.62
Value
$99.37
PnL
+$26.02
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.53
Value
$48.86
PnL
-$0.9
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.