Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 13¢ · $364 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$363.96
-$46.73
17¢ → 13¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $166.58 | $158.54 | -$29.22 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $100.44 | $112.79 | +$12.35 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.3¢ | $68.46 | $39.68 | -$26.06 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.3¢ | $33.01 | $34.32 | +$1.31 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $18.62 | $18.62 | -$5.11 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
Invested
$166.58
Value
$158.54
PnL
-$29.22
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$100.44
Value
$112.79
PnL
+$12.35
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$68.46
Value
$39.68
PnL
-$26.06
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$33.01
Value
$34.32
PnL
+$1.31
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$18.62
Value
$18.62
PnL
-$5.11
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.