Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 5?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$150.29

Combined PnL

$1.86

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$149.53

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$0.71

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.76

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$1.14

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.5¢	$131.39	$109.57	+$0.41	79% 11986-3185 (15171)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$82.22	$39.96	+$0.31	60% 11512-7658 (19170)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.46	$0.62	+$1.42	44% 6176-7916 (14092)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.42	$0.14	-$0.28	30% 2124-4928 (7052)

Lucerys

Invested

$131.39

Value

$109.57

PnL

+$0.41

Record

79%

11986-3185 (15171)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$82.22

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.31

Record

60%

11512-7658 (19170)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$1.42

Record

44%

6176-7916 (14092)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.28

Record

30%

2124-4928 (7052)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.