Consensus PnL $8.0K · win rate 21% (966–3642, n=4608) · was PM monthly #860 · holds 40 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.0K
Record
966W / 3642L
Win Rate
21.0%
of 4608 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2595
Source
PM monthly #860
Record (90 d)
583/2779 · 21%
Trades
2,237
Markets
6,936
Volume
$764.5K
Top consensus positions
40 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 40 on the consensus side (73%)- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No $240 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No $184 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $167 · now 62¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No $143 · now 88¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No $111 · now 14¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $107 · now 38¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (65% of 52)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $75 · now 82¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (51% of 75)
- Will the Democratic Party win the KS-02 House seat?No $37 · now 80¢ · in at 80¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
534 settled consensus markets · held side won 24% at an average entry of 28¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where luciebot's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 20% of 211 at an average 23¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 76%(won 0% of 407)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 100% of 127)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.