Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 2?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $570 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$570.14
$7.7
83.3¢ → 80¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 88¢ | $268.3 | $256.2 | +$3.15 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $175.94 | $176.53 | +$0.6 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $73.57 | $77.52 | +$3.96 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
RO rocky42019ARB<$100 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $58.25 | $59.88 | +$10.62 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.3¢ | $31.59 | $31.89 | +$3.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.8¢ | $22.68 | $27.99 | +$7.21 |
Invested
$268.3
Value
$256.2
PnL
+$3.15
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$175.94
Value
$176.53
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$73.57
Value
$77.52
PnL
+$3.96
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Invested
$58.25
Value
$59.88
PnL
+$10.62
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.