Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 1?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $262 held · ended Nov 1

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$262.24

Combined PnL

$5.02

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 84.7¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$208.7

Total Shares239

Combined PnL+$22.47

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.53

Total Shares459

Combined PnL-$17.45

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 77.5¢	$116.25	$130.5	+$17.25	54% 467-391 (858)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$50.45	$53.93	+$3.48	18% 365-1640 (2005)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$38.91	$24.27	+$1.74	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$25.86	$24.01	-$1.85	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$20.33	$18.68	-$2.38	50% 1907-1873 (3780)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$29.25	$10.85	-$13.22	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$116.25

Value

$130.5

PnL

+$17.25

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$50.45

Value

$53.93

PnL

+$3.48

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.91

Value

$24.27

PnL

+$1.74

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.86

Value

$24.01

PnL

-$1.85

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.33

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$2.38

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.25

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$13.22

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.3%

84.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.