Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $442 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$442.32
$249.62
39.2¢ → 99.7¢
+154% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $24.55 | $177.68 | +$153.13 | 55% 561-452 (1013) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $59 | $125.35 | +$55.92 | 35% 558-1046 (1604) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 84.5¢ | $76.46 | $89.04 | +$12.99 | 54% 7712-6458 (14170) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $12.95 | $50.18 | +$37.54 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Noavg 39.4¢ | $10.03 | $0.08 | -$9.95 | 35% 710-1327 (2037) |
Invested
$24.55
Value
$177.68
PnL
+$153.13
Record
55%
561-452 (1013)
Invested
$59
Value
$125.35
PnL
+$55.92
Record
35%
558-1046 (1604)
Invested
$76.46
Value
$89.04
PnL
+$12.99
Record
54%
7712-6458 (14170)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$50.18
PnL
+$37.54
Record
60%
2354-1539 (3893)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$9.95
Record
35%
710-1327 (2037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.