Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 2?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 30¢ · $414 held · ends Nov 2

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$414.18

Combined PnL

$99.93

Smart Money Entry

26.4¢ → 30¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$330.34

Total Shares1,101

Combined PnL+$102.43

No1 trader

Total Value$83.84

Total Shares131

Combined PnL-$2.5

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$72.02	$130.1	+$58.08	50% 1907-1873 (3780)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$84.65	$119.59	+$34.94	50% 673-674 (1347)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$90.93	$83.84	-$2.5	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$77.96	$80.65	+$9.41	62% 1447-905 (2352)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$72.02

Value

$130.1

PnL

+$58.08

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$84.65

Value

$119.59

PnL

+$34.94

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$90.93

Value

$83.84

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.96

Value

$80.65

PnL

+$9.41

Record

62%

1447-905 (2352)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.