Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 1?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 87¢ · $725 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$725.43
$180.79
45.4¢ → 86.5¢
+90% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $245.42 | $477.23 | +$137.62 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $118.14 | $153.91 | +$35.77 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $55.69 | $60.2 | +$4.52 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Yesavg 73.1¢ | $25 | $25.98 | +$0.98 | 58% 5891-4317 (10208) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $6.19 | $8.09 | +$1.9 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
Invested
$245.42
Value
$477.23
PnL
+$137.62
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$118.14
Value
$153.91
PnL
+$35.77
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$55.69
Value
$60.2
PnL
+$4.52
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$25
Value
$25.98
PnL
+$0.98
Record
58%
5891-4317 (10208)
Invested
$6.19
Value
$8.09
PnL
+$1.9
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.