Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 62% (1478–897, n=2375) · was PM monthly #954 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$15.0K
Record
1478W / 897L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 2375 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1058
Source
PM monthly #954
Trades
116
Markets
2,408
Volume
$423.6K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?Yes $84 · now 17¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 1?Yes $82 · now 33¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (50% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 2?Yes $54 · now 26¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?Yes $39 · now 38¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 2?Yes $13 · now 30¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 1?Yes $4 · now 43¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,195 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 65¢- Weather
+33 pts
side won 98% of 1195 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +38%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 54)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 97% of 313)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 100% of 123)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 99% of 705)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.