Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 0.7¢ · $775 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$774.63
$215.6
50.3¢ → 0.7¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 30¢ | $167.88 | $407.21 | +$239.34 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 53.3¢ | $237.48 | $211.1 | -$26.38 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 52.9¢ | $70.75 | $128.31 | +$2.1 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $14.32 | $27.68 | +$11.27 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.2¢ | $16.05 | $0.32 | -$10.72 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$167.88
Value
$407.21
PnL
+$239.34
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$237.48
Value
$211.1
PnL
-$26.38
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$70.75
Value
$128.31
PnL
+$2.1
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$14.32
Value
$27.68
PnL
+$11.27
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$16.05
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$10.72
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.