Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 83¢ · $929 held · ends Nov 2

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$929.35

Combined PnL

$89.4

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 83¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$779.07

Total Shares898

Combined PnL+$70.85

Yes3 traders

Total Value$150.28

Total Shares786

Combined PnL+$18.55

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 74.1¢	$691.77	$763.11	+$71.34	47% 698-782 (1480)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$55.85	$84.49	+$28.64	62% 1447-905 (2352)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$72.73	$62.38	-$10.34	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$16.45	$15.97	-$0.49	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.5¢	$3.15	$3.41	+$0.26	50% 1907-1873 (3780)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$691.77

Value

$763.11

PnL

+$71.34

Record

47%

698-782 (1480)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.85

Value

$84.49

PnL

+$28.64

Record

62%

1447-905 (2352)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.73

Value

$62.38

PnL

-$10.34

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$15.97

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.