Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $293 held · ended Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$292.94

Combined PnL

-$4.72

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$292.75

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$111.89

No2 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$116.61

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 62¢	$178.81	$288.17	+$109.51	50% 2042-2019 (4061)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 61.5¢	$2.2	$4.58	+$2.38	47% 752-839 (1591)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 34.6¢	$100.11	$0.16	-$99.95	17% 402-2020 (2422)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$18.28	$0.02	-$16.66	60% 2356-1540 (3896)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$178.81

Value

$288.17

PnL

+$109.51

Record

50%

2042-2019 (4061)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$2.38

Record

47%

752-839 (1591)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$100.11

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$99.95

Record

17%

402-2020 (2422)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$18.28

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$16.66

Record

60%

2356-1540 (3896)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.