Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 3?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $162 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$162.36
$9.05
92.2¢ → 98.1¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $89.18 | $96.76 | +$7.14 | 50% 2042-2017 (4059) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.43 | $29.43 | +$0 | 50% 7813-7864 (15677) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $26.86 | $26.14 | +$1.8 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.7 | $9.81 | +$0.12 | 57% 17248-12904 (30152) |
Invested
$89.18
Value
$96.76
PnL
+$7.14
Record
50%
2042-2017 (4059)
Invested
$29.43
Value
$29.43
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7813-7864 (15677)
Invested
$26.86
Value
$26.14
PnL
+$1.8
Record
53%
3389-3008 (6397)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.12
Record
57%
17248-12904 (30152)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.