Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 0.4¢ · $811 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$810.66
$359.82
68.6¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 19.1¢ | $201.25 | $715.66 | +$523.39 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $50.49 | $91.45 | +$38.1 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 73.1¢ | $141.4 | $2.16 | -$139.24 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $50.4 | $1.11 | -$49.29 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 55.9¢ | $16.67 | $0.29 | -$13.14 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
Invested
$201.25
Value
$715.66
PnL
+$523.39
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$50.49
Value
$91.45
PnL
+$38.1
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
IstarothCTRInvested
$141.4
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$139.24
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Invested
$50.4
Value
$1.11
PnL
-$49.29
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$0.29
PnL
-$13.14
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.