Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Persita Tangerang win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 37¢ · $134 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$134.39
-$0.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Noavg 30.6¢ | $84.2 | $101.75 | -$1.59 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Yesavg 69.7¢ | $16.51 | $15.4 | -$1.11 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.3¢ | $8.71 | $10.29 | +$1.58 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $3 | $3.7 | +$0.7 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.25 | -$0.35 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$84.2
Value
$101.75
PnL
-$1.59
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$16.51
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$1.11
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
Invested
$8.71
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$1.58
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.7
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.