Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 76¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 1
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 83%
$7.8K
$482.75
71¢ → 75.5¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 76%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
70h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 68.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.7K | +$256.75 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 71.3¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$149.5 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
 Udonsan | Noavg 73.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$59.99 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
 Porx | Noavg 70.3¢ | $421.93 | $449.92 | +$31 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
 MEPPCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $130.49 | $125.66 | -$14.5 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $2.94 | $2.96 | +$0.02 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
Invested
$2,446.66
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$256.75
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
Parz1vaIInvested
$2,276
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$149.5
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
UdonsanInvested
$2,100.65
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$59.99
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
PorxInvested
$421.93
Value
$449.92
PnL
+$31
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
MEPPCTRInvested
$130.49
Value
$125.66
PnL
-$14.5
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.