Consensus PnL $91K · win rate 66% (816–416, n=1232) · hand-picked wallet · holds 72 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$90.9K
Record
816W / 416L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 1232 settled
Batting Avg
73.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#885
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
62,247
Markets
2,571
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
72 in listed consensus markets · 44 of 72 on the consensus side (61%)- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $3.3K · now 94¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $1.8K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $1.7K · now 84¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?No $998 · now 95¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Yes $850 · now 16¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $810 · now 90¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No $708 · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $676 · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
Specialties
1,579 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 51¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 58% of 938 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +4%
- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 49% of 87 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +1%
- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 42% of 59 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 14% of 641)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 50% of 166)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 75% of 142)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 97% of 630)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.