Consensus PnL $69K · win rate 80% (274–69, n=343) · was PM monthly #980 · holds 38 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$69.2K
Record
274W / 69L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 343 settled
Batting Avg
78.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#439
Source
PM monthly #980
Trades
903
Markets
420
Volume
$833.9K
Top consensus positions
38 in listed consensus markets · 36 of 38 on the consensus side (95%)- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No $20K · now 89¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (19% of 21)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $16K · now 89¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $8.0K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $7.7K · now 87¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No $3.1K · now 85¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (50% of 14)
- Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Yes $2.8K · now 90¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?No $2.2K · now 88¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?No $2.1K · now 76¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
277 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 84¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 87% of 197 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 77% of 35 at an average 89¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −49%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 23% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 11% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 50% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 94% of 237)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.