Consensus PnL $776K · win rate 73% (2208–813, n=3021) · PM monthly #393 · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$776.1K
Record
2208W / 813L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 3021 settled
Batting Avg
64.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#619
Source
PM monthly #393 + pinned
Trades
154,081
Markets
5,025
Volume
$32.2M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 42 of 46 on the consensus side (91%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $45K · now 65¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $24K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $23K · now 84¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $21K · now 70¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $19K · now 77¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $17K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $13K · now 73¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (61% of 41)
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No $13K · now 96¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
Specialties
3,746 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 67¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 78% of 571 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 77% of 355 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +3%
- Finance
+6 pts
side won 88% of 113 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 67% of 126 at an average 71¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 9% of 720)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 40% of 323)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 62% of 517)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 95% of 2186)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.