Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will North East United FC win on 2026-11-05?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$115.3
$1.1
48.8¢ → 49¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.9¢ | $69.59 | $70.16 | +$0.64 | 51% 25630-24353 (49983) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $18.14 | $18.14 | +$0 | 50% 25743-25431 (51174) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $19.46 | $9.8 | -$0.1 | 58% 46330-33448 (79778) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $6.79 | $6.93 | +$0.14 | 52% 1355-1274 (2629) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.9¢ | $10.75 | $5.32 | +$0.17 | 51% 1362-1323 (2685) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $10 | $4.95 | +$0.25 | 50% 1301-1287 (2588) |
Invested
$69.59
Value
$70.16
PnL
+$0.64
Record
51%
25630-24353 (49983)
Invested
$18.14
Value
$18.14
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25743-25431 (51174)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.46
Value
$9.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
46330-33448 (79778)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$6.93
PnL
+$0.14
Record
52%
1355-1274 (2629)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
1362-1323 (2685)
Invested
$10
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
1301-1287 (2588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.