Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ruth Roura Llaverias, while the market favors Astrid Lew Yan Foon (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Heraklion: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Ruth Roura Llaverias

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ruth Roura Llaverias (86%) · Ruth Roura Llaverias at 0.1¢ · $67 held · ends Nov 10

Astrid Lew Yan Foon>99¢Ruth Roura Llaverias<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ruth Roura Llaverias

Consensus Traders

Ruth Roura Llaverias 86%

Total Value

$66.96

Combined PnL

-$70.75

Smart Money Entry

11.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidRuth Roura Llaverias at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ruth Roura Llaverias

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Astrid Lew Yan Foon 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Astrid Lew Yan Foon100%

Ruth Roura Llaverias0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ruth Roura Llaverias6 traders

Total Value$55.77

Total Shares908

Combined PnL-$74.22

Astrid Lew Yan Foon1 trader

Total Value$11.19

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$3.47

Ruth Roura Llaverias — 86%Astrid Lew Yan Foon — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ruth Roura Llaveriasavg 57¢	$26.14	$22.47	-$1.15	50% 20079-20419 (40498)
RN1CTR<$100	Ruth Roura Llaveriasavg 12.5¢	$55.02	$20.5	-$34.53	53% 58849-51154 (110003)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Astrid Lew Yan Foonavg 69¢	$7.73	$11.19	+$3.47	60% 4199-2807 (7006)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ruth Roura Llaveriasavg 7.8¢	$36.48	$11.16	-$25.31	48% 14300-15778 (30078)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Ruth Roura Llaveriasavg 12¢	$7.86	$1.57	-$6.29	47% 1281-1461 (2742)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Ruth Roura Llaveriasavg 5.5¢	$5.5	$0.05	-$5.45	53% 21911-19053 (40964)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Ruth Roura Llaveriasavg 5¢	$1.51	$0.02	-$1.49	52% 6689-6200 (12889)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ruth Roura Llaverias

Invested

$26.14

Value

$22.47

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

20079-20419 (40498)

RN1CTR<$100

Ruth Roura Llaverias

Invested

$55.02

Value

$20.5

PnL

-$34.53

Record

53%

58849-51154 (110003)

thestingsnake<$100

Astrid Lew Yan Foon

Invested

$7.73

Value

$11.19

PnL

+$3.47

Record

60%

4199-2807 (7006)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Ruth Roura Llaverias

Invested

$36.48

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$25.31

Record

48%

14300-15778 (30078)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Ruth Roura Llaverias

Invested

$7.86

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$6.29

Record

47%

1281-1461 (2742)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Ruth Roura Llaverias

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.45

Record

53%

21911-19053 (40964)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Ruth Roura Llaverias

Invested

$1.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.49

Record

52%

6689-6200 (12889)

Research grade

AvoidRuth Roura Llaverias at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Ruth Roura Llaverias

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Astrid Lew Yan Foon 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ruth Roura Llaverias wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.