Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Iannis Miletich, while the market favors Svyatoslav Gulin (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Valencia: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Iannis Miletich

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Iannis Miletich (78%) · Iannis Miletich at 0.1¢ · $137 held · ends Nov 10

Svyatoslav Gulin>99¢Iannis Miletich<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Iannis Miletich

Consensus Traders

Iannis Miletich 78%

Total Value

$136.78

Combined PnL

-$12.48

Research grade

AvoidIannis Miletich at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iannis Miletich

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Svyatoslav Gulin 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Svyatoslav Gulin100%

Iannis Miletich0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Svyatoslav Gulin2 traders

Total Value$131.36

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$2.77

Iannis Miletich7 traders

Total Value$5.41

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$9.71

Svyatoslav Gulin — 22%Iannis Miletich — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Iannis Miletich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSvyatoslav Gulin 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrIannis Miletich 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Iannis Miletich 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 93¢	$88.49	$90.39	+$1.9	53% 58869-51174 (110043)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Svyatoslav Gulinavg 83¢	$45.65	$40.98	-$4.67	50% 20113-20444 (40557)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Iannis Miletichavg 17¢	$4.06	$2.39	-$1.67	48% 14339-15840 (30179)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Iannis Miletichavg 7.7¢	$7.89	$0.92	-$6.97	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Iannis Miletichavg 7.3¢	$1.05	$0.71	-$0.33	48% 6134-6542 (12676)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Iannis Miletichavg 21¢	$0.73	$0.5	-$0.23	48% 5267-5648 (10915)
poshposhCTR<$100	Iannis Miletichavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.5	-$0.45	57% 11829-8912 (20741)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Iannis Miletichavg 6¢	$0.34	$0.28	-$0.06	47% 1285-1476 (2761)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Iannis Miletichavg 10¢	$0.11	$0.11	+$0	47% 10535-11772 (22307)

RN1<$100

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$88.49

Value

$90.39

PnL

+$1.9

Record

53%

58869-51174 (110043)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Svyatoslav Gulin

Invested

$45.65

Value

$40.98

PnL

-$4.67

Record

50%

20113-20444 (40557)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Iannis Miletich

Invested

$4.06

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$1.67

Record

48%

14339-15840 (30179)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Iannis Miletich

Invested

$7.89

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$6.97

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Iannis Miletich

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$0.33

Record

48%

6134-6542 (12676)

smithagentCTR<$100

Iannis Miletich

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

5267-5648 (10915)

poshposhCTR<$100

Iannis Miletich

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.45

Record

57%

11829-8912 (20741)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Iannis Miletich

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

1285-1476 (2761)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Iannis Miletich

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

10535-11772 (22307)

Research grade

AvoidIannis Miletich at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Iannis Miletich

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Svyatoslav Gulin 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Iannis Miletich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSvyatoslav Gulin 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrIannis Miletich 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Iannis Miletich 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iannis Miletich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.