W35 Orlando, FL: Evialina Laskevich vs Aspen Schuman
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Evialina Laskevich (33%) · Evialina Laskevich at 100¢ · $494 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Evialina Laskevich
6
Evialina Laskevich 33%
$494.17
-$167.57
89.6¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralEvialina Laskevich at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Evialina Laskevich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Evialina Laskevichavg 90.5¢ | $468.78 | $398.85 | -$69.93 | 53% 61353-53664 (115017) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Evialina Laskevichavg 84.6¢ | $92.98 | $90.98 | -$2 | 48% 61037-65871 (126908) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Aspen Schumanavg 28¢ | $4.32 | $3.95 | -$0.44 | 50% 21164-21421 (42585) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Aspen Schumanavg 24¢ | $94.46 | $0.2 | -$94.26 | 46% 1536-1808 (3344) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Aspen Schumanavg 24¢ | $0.48 | $0.11 | -$0.38 | 54% 6274-5339 (11613) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Aspen Schumanavg 0.4¢ | $0.64 | $0.08 | -$0.56 | 53% 23490-20724 (44214) |
RN1Invested
$468.78
Value
$398.85
PnL
-$69.93
Record
53%
61353-53664 (115017)
Invested
$92.98
Value
$90.98
PnL
-$2
Record
48%
61037-65871 (126908)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$0.44
Record
50%
21164-21421 (42585)
Invested
$94.46
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$94.26
Record
46%
1536-1808 (3344)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.38
Record
54%
6274-5339 (11613)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
23490-20724 (44214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.