W50 Chihuahua: Isabella Marton vs Demi Tran

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Demi Tran (33%) · Demi Tran at 96¢ · $693 held · ends Nov 17

Isabella Marton4¢Demi Tran96¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Demi Tran

Consensus Traders

Demi Tran 33%

Total Value

$692.53

Combined PnL

$27.61

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 96.5¢

+31% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDemi Tran at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Demi Tran

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Isabella Marton4%

Demi Tran96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Demi Tran2 traders

Total Value$636.93

Total Shares704

Combined PnL+$116.8

Isabella Marton4 traders

Total Value$55.47

Total Shares618

Combined PnL-$89.19

Demi Tran — 33%Isabella Marton — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Demi Tran. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Demi Tran) and the top 1000 (5 on Isabella Marton) disagree here.

ctrIsabella Marton 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedDemi Tran 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Isabella Marton 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Demi Tranavg 75.8¢	$409.71	$497.33	+$87.63	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
38 38791873984189	Demi Tranavg 67.2¢	$110.43	$139.6	+$29.17	48% 898-974 (1872)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Isabella Martonavg 23.8¢	$130.36	$49.32	-$81.04	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Isabella Martonavg 32.5¢	$13	$3.6	-$9.4	49% 66-68 (134)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Isabella Martonavg 9¢	$0.9	$2.2	+$1.3	18% 78-346 (424)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Isabella Martonavg 2¢	$0.4	$0.35	-$0.05	24% 100-316 (416)

RN1

Demi Tran

Invested

$409.71

Value

$497.33

PnL

+$87.63

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

38791873984189

Demi Tran

Invested

$110.43

Value

$139.6

PnL

+$29.17

Record

48%

898-974 (1872)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Isabella Marton

Invested

$130.36

Value

$49.32

PnL

-$81.04

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Isabella Marton

Invested

$13

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$9.4

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Isabella Marton

Invested

$0.9

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$1.3

Record

18%

78-346 (424)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Isabella Marton

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

24%

100-316 (416)

Research grade

NeutralDemi Tran at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Demi Tran

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Demi Tran. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Demi Tran) and the top 1000 (5 on Isabella Marton) disagree here.

ctrIsabella Marton 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedDemi Tran 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Isabella Marton 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Demi Tran wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.