W35 Heraklion: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Laura Svatikova

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ane Mintegi Del Olmo (60%) · Ane Mintegi Del Olmo at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo87¢Laura Svatikova13¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

Consensus Traders

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$125.18

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 87¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAne Mintegi Del Olmo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo87%

Laura Svatikova13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,692

Combined PnL-$153.79

Laura Svatikova2 traders

Total Value$34.45

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$28.61

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — 60%Laura Svatikova — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ane Mintegi Del Olmo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLaura Svatikova 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedAne Mintegi Del Olmo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 93¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$127.88	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
RN1	Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 92.7¢	$266.87	$250.56	-$16.31	57% 3991-3004 (6995)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 93.3¢	$147.63	$137.18	-$10.45	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Ane Mintegi Del Olmo leg	Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 93.3¢	$121.34	$108.75	-$12.59
└ Laura Svatikova leg	Laura Svatikovaavg 15.1¢	$26.29	$28.44	+$2.14
TH thestingsnake<$100	Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 93¢	$55.8	$46.2	-$9.6	23% 108-368 (476)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Laura Svatikovaavg 3.1¢	$4.46	$33.07	+$28.61	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Laura Svatikovaavg 23¢	$1.38	$1.38	+$0	27% 142-383 (525)

Flaznorp

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

Invested

$1,385.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$127.88

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

RN1

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

Invested

$266.87

Value

$250.56

PnL

-$16.31

Record

57%

3991-3004 (6995)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

Invested

$147.63

Value

$137.18

PnL

-$10.45

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo$121.3493.3¢-$12.59

Laura Svatikova$26.2915.1¢+$2.14

thestingsnake<$100

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

Invested

$55.8

Value

$46.2

PnL

-$9.6

Record

23%

108-368 (476)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Laura Svatikova

Invested

$4.46

Value

$33.07

PnL

+$28.61

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Laura Svatikova

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

142-383 (525)

Research grade

NeutralAne Mintegi Del Olmo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ane Mintegi Del Olmo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLaura Svatikova 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedAne Mintegi Del Olmo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ane Mintegi Del Olmo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.