Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eric Vanshelboim, while the market favors Ignacio Parisca (92%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Valencia: Ignacio Parisca vs Eric Vanshelboim

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Eric Vanshelboim (33%) · Eric Vanshelboim at 7.9¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Ignacio Parisca92¢Eric Vanshelboim8¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Eric Vanshelboim

Consensus Traders

Eric Vanshelboim 33%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$205.24

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 7.9¢

-84% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidEric Vanshelboim at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eric Vanshelboim

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Ignacio Parisca 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ignacio Parisca92%

Eric Vanshelboim8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eric Vanshelboim2 traders

Total Value$663.25

Total Shares824

Combined PnL-$401.71

Ignacio Parisca4 traders

Total Value$618.37

Total Shares648

Combined PnL+$196.48

Eric Vanshelboim — 33%Ignacio Parisca — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Eric Vanshelboim. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIgnacio Parisca 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrEric Vanshelboim 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedIgnacio Parisca 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ignacio Parisca 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Eric Vanshelboimavg 59.6¢	$740.53	$653.36	-$396.09	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
FL Flaznorp	Ignacio Pariscaavg 75.9¢	$252.67	$297.91	+$45.25	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
RN1	Ignacio Pariscaavg 48¢	$158.45	$296.02	+$137.56	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
38 38791873984189<$100	Ignacio Pariscaavg 41.1¢	$8.63	$19.33	+$10.7	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Eric Vanshelboimavg 9.4¢	$15.52	$9.89	-$5.62	53% 3363-2944 (6307)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Ignacio Pariscaavg 37¢	$2.14	$5.1	+$2.96	47% 11071-12407 (23478)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Eric Vanshelboim

Invested

$740.53

Value

$653.36

PnL

-$396.09

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

Flaznorp

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$252.67

Value

$297.91

PnL

+$45.25

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

RN1

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$158.45

Value

$296.02

PnL

+$137.56

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

38791873984189<$100

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$8.63

Value

$19.33

PnL

+$10.7

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Eric Vanshelboim

Invested

$15.52

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$5.62

Record

53%

3363-2944 (6307)

topdogbigboi<$100

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$2.14

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$2.96

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

Research grade

AvoidEric Vanshelboim at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eric Vanshelboim

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Ignacio Parisca 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Eric Vanshelboim. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIgnacio Parisca 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrEric Vanshelboim 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedIgnacio Parisca 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ignacio Parisca 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eric Vanshelboim wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.3%

7.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$974.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

1074.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.