Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sohyun Park, while the market favors Naiktha Bains (64%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W75 Brisbane: Sohyun Park vs Naiktha Bains
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sohyun Park (33%) · Sohyun Park at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Sohyun Park
6
Sohyun Park 33%
$1.1K
$8.44
43.4¢ → 36.5¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSohyun Park at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Naiktha Bains 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Sohyun Park. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Sohyun Parkavg 43.6¢ | $551.7 | $500.1 | -$51.6 | 54% 1570-1320 (2890) |
FL Flaznorp | Naiktha Bainsavg 51.8¢ | $205.2 | $259.68 | +$54.47 | 50% 1318-1340 (2658) |
 RN1 | Naiktha Bainsavg 66.4¢ | $182.75 | $180.51 | -$2.23 | 58% 3695-2661 (6356) |
38 38791873984189 | Naiktha Bainsavg 59.4¢ | $139.91 | $140.09 | +$0.18 | 48% 644-687 (1331) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Naiktha Bainsavg 52¢ | $32.68 | $40.22 | +$7.54 | 34% 151-298 (449) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Sohyun Parkavg 34¢ | $10.1 | $10.18 | +$0.08 | 14% 52-322 (374) |
Invested
$551.7
Value
$500.1
PnL
-$51.6
Record
54%
1570-1320 (2890)
Invested
$205.2
Value
$259.68
PnL
+$54.47
Record
50%
1318-1340 (2658)
RN1Invested
$182.75
Value
$180.51
PnL
-$2.23
Record
58%
3695-2661 (6356)
Invested
$139.91
Value
$140.09
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
644-687 (1331)
Invested
$32.68
Value
$40.22
PnL
+$7.54
Record
34%
151-298 (449)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$10.18
PnL
+$0.08
Record
14%
52-322 (374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.