W35 Weston, FL: Sachia Vickery vs Michaela Laki
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sachia Vickery (67%) · Sachia Vickery at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Sachia Vickery
6
Sachia Vickery 67%
$1.3K
-$53.87
57.7¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSachia Vickery at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Sachia Vickeryavg 57.6¢ | $815.46 | $785.91 | -$29.55 | 57% 4029-3044 (7073) |
 alpheclabs2 | Sachia Vickeryavg 59¢ | $135.7 | $161 | +$25.3 | 45% 114-137 (251) |
38 38791873984189 | Sachia Vickeryavg 56.7¢ | $142.08 | $151.73 | +$9.65 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Michaela Lakiavg 45¢ | $114.75 | $105.82 | -$8.93 | 51% 1833-1787 (3620) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR | Michaela Lakiavg 52¢ | $120 | $69.23 | -$50.77 | 21% 107-407 (514) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Sachia Vickeryavg 57¢ | $1.87 | $2.3 | +$0.43 | 53% 1801-1611 (3412) |
RN1Invested
$815.46
Value
$785.91
PnL
-$29.55
Record
57%
4029-3044 (7073)
alpheclabs2Invested
$135.7
Value
$161
PnL
+$25.3
Record
45%
114-137 (251)
Invested
$142.08
Value
$151.73
PnL
+$9.65
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Invested
$114.75
Value
$105.82
PnL
-$8.93
Record
51%
1833-1787 (3620)
Invested
$120
Value
$69.23
PnL
-$50.77
Record
21%
107-407 (514)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.43
Record
53%
1801-1611 (3412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.