W35 Heraklion: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Astrid Lew Yan Foon
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Zantedeschi (71%) · Aurora Zantedeschi at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Aurora Zantedeschi
7
Aurora Zantedeschi 71%
$4.3K
-$7.68
89.8¢ → 98.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAurora Zantedeschi at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Aurora Zantedeschiavg 90.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$48.06 | 46% 109-130 (239) |
CI cigarettes | Aurora Zantedeschiavg 91.5¢ | $929.38 | $992.17 | +$62.79 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
FL Flaznorp | Aurora Zantedeschiavg 86.8¢ | $878.7 | $940.5 | +$61.8 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
38 38791873984189 | Aurora Zantedeschiavg 88.7¢ | $210.73 | $231.5 | +$20.77 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Astrid Lew Yan Foonavg 12.4¢ | $253.75 | $52.02 | -$201.73 | 53% 1788-1590 (3378) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Aurora Zantedeschiavg 93¢ | $11.95 | $12.21 | +$0.26 | 23% 112-368 (480) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Astrid Lew Yan Foonavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.88 | +$0.38 | 49% 93-96 (189) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$2,028.85
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$48.06
Record
46%
109-130 (239)
Invested
$929.38
Value
$992.17
PnL
+$62.79
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$878.7
Value
$940.5
PnL
+$61.8
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$210.73
Value
$231.5
PnL
+$20.77
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$253.75
Value
$52.02
PnL
-$201.73
Record
53%
1788-1590 (3378)
Invested
$11.95
Value
$12.21
PnL
+$0.26
Record
23%
112-368 (480)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.88
PnL
+$0.38
Record
49%
93-96 (189)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
alpheclabs2
Aurora Zantedeschi — $2.1K
cigarettes
Aurora Zantedeschi — $992.17
Flaznorp
Aurora Zantedeschi — $940.5
38791873984189
Aurora Zantedeschi — $231.5
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRAstrid Lew Yan Foon — $52.02
thestingsnake
Aurora Zantedeschi — $12.21
Eulhunter
CTRAstrid Lew Yan Foon — $1.88