Will Blaublitz Akita vs. Ōita Trinita end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $131 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$131.18
$25.56
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.9¢ | $74.24 | $100.68 | +$26.44 | 51% 26884-25495 (52379) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $15.73 | $18.35 | +$2.61 | 47% 9482-10610 (20092) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $12.62 | $7.96 | -$4.66 | 49% 1774-1854 (3628) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $2.76 | $3.93 | +$1.16 | 84% 15040-2923 (17963) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $0.27 | $0.27 | +$0.01 | 53% 62075-54349 (116424) |
Invested
$74.24
Value
$100.68
PnL
+$26.44
Record
51%
26884-25495 (52379)
Invested
$15.73
Value
$18.35
PnL
+$2.61
Record
47%
9482-10610 (20092)
Invested
$12.62
Value
$7.96
PnL
-$4.66
Record
49%
1774-1854 (3628)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$1.16
Record
84%
15040-2923 (17963)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.27
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
62075-54349 (116424)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.